Code Battle Analysis
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Figure 1 Figure 1 charts the average crowds of the Brisbane Broncos, Melbourne Storm, Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans from the years 1998 to 2009. The four teams are key markers in the success of the AFL and NRL to expand into enemy territory. All have won premierships in the period. The graph appears to show solid growth from the Brisbane Broncos; however, this result is slightly skewed because is initial low base can be attributed to residual damage caused by the Super league War of the mid 90s. In what may be considered unexpected, the success of the Brisbane Lions seemed to spark a recovery in Brisbane Broncos crowds. Perhaps the fear of Queensland becoming an AFL state motivated rugby league fans to forgive the Broncos. The significant year to year fluctuations by the Sydney Swans can be attributed to the fickle nature of their supporters. Of concern for the club would be that their average crowd in 2008 was similar to that in 1998. The Brisbane Lions showed a steady upwards climb that peaked in the years of its three consecutive premierships. The years since have seen a slight fall away, but are reasonable close to Broncos’ crowds. The crowds of the Melbourne Storm have remained dismally low. The one ray of sunshine is that they have recovered slightly from the lowly years of 2002 to 2005. Overall, the administrators of both the AFL and NRL would be concerned at the relative stagnation over the last five years. Although it means neither code is losing ground, it means neither is gaining either.
Australia's Battle of the Codes -Predicting the Winner"The bosses of the codes, on the other hand, feign a convivial relationship, while fighting a covert war for players, sponsors, broadcasting dollars and government grants and influence".- Roy Masters Code rationalisation is inevitable in Australia. Human history has shown that diverse groups of people eventually assimilate into relatively homogenous units due to the actions of the powerful, a desire to express an identity, or a desire to conform to the dominant position. 100 years ago in Australia, this was seen at a state level. In NSW, WA, and Queensland, footballers had the choice to play Australian rules, rugby legue, rugby union or soccer. One code eventually emerged to dominate others. Code rationalisation never occured at a national level because Australia's tyranny of distance preventing the formation of a national football competition until commercial flight became economically viable. Presently; however, statistics don't show any sign of code rationalisation. Against predictions, all of Australia’s football codes seem to be in a holding position, neither going forwards nor backwards. This can be attributed to the failure of each code, particularly the AFL, to leverage some kind of national narrative to unite people. Furthermore, the AFL has not been able to use its financial superiority to its advantage. In 2006, AFL revenue was almost double NRL revenue and almost triple the revenue of rugby union and soccer. From 2005 to 2009, total attendance for the AFL was more than double the NRL, more than six times that of the A-league and more than 12 times that of the Super 14. Despite these advantages, the state of play seemed to be in stalemate. The addition of new teams on the Gold Coast and West Sydney can be seen as attempts by the AFL to leverage its superior financial might into national appeal and so break the stalemate. Ultimately though, unless it can make nation wide State of Origin football work, the AFL wont be able to create a national narrative to give it victory. It will have supremacy in WA, Tas, Vic, and SA, but will not be able to inspire a national story that fans in NSW and Queensland want to be part of. Soccer seems to have great potential to create a national narrative. It has teams in every Australian state and a national team playing in global competitions. Nevertheless, it will go the same way as basketball. Just as Australian basketball fans watch the NBA because the glamour is higher, Australian soccer fans will watch European leagues that likewise have more glamour. Australia’s domestic soccer league will then be about as popular as domestic soccer leagues are in South America, where crowds are fluctuate from a few seagulls to averages of around 10,000. In Australia, a crowd of 5,000 people will be considered a success. Rugby league is defending its line but has little resources to attack the line of others. Ultimately, you need more than good defence to win a game. If there is no attack, it is only a matter of time before the line is breached. Eventually, league will adopt rugby union rules. Even though rugby league fans care about their traditions, the modern professional rugby league player cares about money. Union is played in 100 countries and wealthy businessmen are prepared to spend millions on a club for status alone. The greater international presence gives union players for financial possibilities. League players will simply follow their wallet. In the process, they will represent Australia in rugby union. How long it takes for league to adopt union rules will ultimately determine the future of both codes in Australia. The longer it takes, the longer the two codes will hurt each other. Union's Super 14 can't last forever. The inclusion for South Africa makes it television unfriendly and difficult for fans to develop a tribal following or find a routine. An ideal competition would include Australia's top rugby league clubs with New Zealand’s five Super 14 provinces in a season-long competition. It is debateable as to whether such a competition would be able to stem the loss of rugby union players to European clubs or offer a worthwhile television alternative to European rugby. If Australia and New Zealand maintained test rugby as the pinnacle of the code and didn’t downplay the national jumper with “developmental” squads it is possible that it would. Union's crunch year is likely to be 2010 when News Ltd's five-year $NZ664-million contract with SANZAR expires. Declining television audiences make it unlikely that News Ltd would again commit that sort of money again. No other code has a kill switch hanging over its head. If News Ltd decides not broadcast the Super 14, the competition could not survive. Australia would then have no professional structure beneath test level. Perhaps a new Super 10, season long competition involving just Australia and New Zealand, could be established. It would be rugby's only hope of surviving. Longer term, union's survival is assured because of its global popularity. If union did fall over, some incentives would be put to rugby league players and rugby league clubs to adopt rugby union rules. State of playIf there is no change in the current strategies of each code, predictions need to be made on a state by state basis where state identities will rein. The following predictions have been made on a weight of numbers basis that would be most effective in creating a sense of community that an individual in each state would want to be part of. QueenslandPopulation – In 2005, the population of Queensland officially reached 4 million. Australian football
Rugby League
Soccer
Rugby union
Prediction - Rugby LeagueClearly rugby league has the greatest artillery in Queensland with three NRL clubs, a state of origin team and a national representative team. It is highly unlikely that any code could defeat rugby league in Queensland. With a second Queensland team on the Gold Coast, the AFL would be increasingly its artillery but would still be a significant way behind. Rugby union looks most likely to fall. One state team that plays for half a season is likely to get drowned by three NRL teams, two AFL teams, and three A-league teams.
NSWIn 2007, the population of New South Wales was 6.89 million Australian football
Rugby League
Soccer
Rugby union
Prediction - Rugby LeagueHistorically, NSW is a rugby league state but it is under serious attack. In Newcastle, the cash-strapped Newcastle Knights are seeing their corporate and fan support leaking towards the Central Coast Mariners and Newcastle Jets. ( The Knights do make money from Jets games however.) In Sydney, rugby league has plenty of artillery but it is so close together that damage is caused by friendly fire. If there were less teams, there might be sufficient support to draw big crowds in the centrally located stadiums instead of the smaller grounds in the hard-toget-to suburbs. Because around 30 per cent of Sydney's population are migrants, the population is not as rusted on to rugby league as heavily as some media commentators propose. If soccer were to win a state, the high migrant population combined with the high number of soccer teams makes a NSW victory seem its best chance. Union in NSW has the same problem as union in Queensland. One team isn't capable of going up against the combined forces of soccer, rugby league and Australian football. Union is likely to go the way of basketball in Sydney. Australian football has historically done poorly in Sydney. Its main brand has been the Sydney Swans; which were relocated from Melbourne 30 years ago. The ballerina and Melbournian associations have never really captured the imagination of Sydney siders. In order to have any chance in Sydney, the AFL would have to come up with a better brand. Even though Australian football is stronger in Queensland, the AFL has more chance of winning Sydney than Queensland. Sydney's high migrant population combined with soccer's attacks on rugby league present the AFL will plenty of opportunities if it can develop the right brand to exploit weakeness in rugby league. VictoriaIn 2007, the population of Victoria was 5,205,200 Australian football
Rugby Union
Soccer
Rugby League
Prediction - Australian footballA safe Australian football state. Rugby union has no serious presence, and rugby league has a weak presence. Only soccer has threatened in any shape or form.10 AFL teams in Melbourne is a problem, although ground rationalisation has ensured they have avoided some of the ground accessibility problems suffered by rugby league in Sydney. Western AustraliaIn 2005, the population of Western Australia was a little over 2 million. Australian football
Rugby union
Soccer One A-league team – Pay TV Rugby League
Prediction- Australian footballA safe Australian football state. Rugby league has no team, the soccer team is going backwards, and the rugby union team has not proved itself in any way across time. South AustraliaPopulation – In 2005 the population of South Australia was around 1,542,000 Australian footballTwo AFL teams- Pay TV and free to air Rugby UnionNational team – Pay TV and sometimes free to air Soccer
Rugby League
Prediction - Australian footballA safe Australian football state. Neither rugby union nor rugby league has a meaningful presence. TasmaniaPopulation – In 2005, the population of Tasmania was estimated at 485,300 persons Australian football
Rugby Union
Soccer
Rugby League
Prediction - Australian footballNo football code has a team playing out of Tasmania. Historically, the state plays Australian football and until another code challenges that dominance by establishing a team, nothing will change. Australian Capital TerritoryIn 2006, the population was 333,667 Australian football
Rugby Union
Soccer
Rugby League
Prediction - rugby unionThe only region where rugby union dominates over the other codes. Unfortunately, the small size of the population means holding the ACT is like holding Old Kent Road in a game of monopoly. Mayfair it is not. Northern territoryIn 2006, the population was estimated at 212,600 Australian football
Rugby Union
Soccer
Rugby League
PredictionCurrently, the population likes both rugby league and Australian football. Nothing much will change. |
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