"Soccer is a gentleman's game played by ruffians, Rugby is a ruffians' game played by gentlemen. Rugby league is a ruffians' game played by ruffians. " (Old English saying.)

To understand how globalisation will influence Australia's battle of the football codes, it is important to consider what the international environment is likely to be in the future - not just the situation now. Predictions of the future environment are best made by considering the various influences that created the current situation.

Currently, soccer is the most popular football code in most of the world's non-English speaking nations. While it is popular in non-English speaking nations, with the exception of England, soccer is not very popular in English speaking nations. This lack of popularity can be attributed to British emmigration, which resulted in English-speaking nations gaining exposure to rugby. It was by accepting rugby, or creating new games influenced by rugby, that the English speaking nations created professional football competitions that kept soccer weak. In non-English speaking nations; however, soccer spread because its simplistic rules were easily communicated via word of mouth. These countries had soccer as the only major professional team sport.

In England, soccer gained an advantage over union because it paid players. The payment of players allowed soccer to build a following in the working class market, and the toughness of the working class image in turn appealed to the middle-classes. Eventually, it also appealed to businesses, sponsors and advertisers. Cross-industry promotions, financial backing and advertising allowed soccer to go mainstream and dominate union.

Union probably would have gone professional as well had its working class players not created rugby league in 1895. In rugby league, English rugby union administrators had a circuit breaker. Any disaffected rugby player didn't have to revolt because they had a choice to play amatuer rugby or professional rugby league. Consequently, union remained amateur until 1995. By remaining amateur, union was never able to challenge soccer.

Although professional, rugby league was never able to truly grow because a continuing conflict with union kept it weak. In France, rugby union had rugby league banned outright, its assets seized, and league players blacklisted. Union found it difficult to grow itself because it was more concerned with keeping league down, rather than improving itself. As the rugby codes kept fighting, soccer increased its lead.

Now that union is professional, it is able to offer an alternative to soccer around the world. Not only is this alternative being offered to players, and spectators, but also to sponsors and advertisers. In Europe, rugby is showing that professionalism is the way to increase spectator appeal. If union's growth continues, it is by no means certain that the current dominance of soccer will be maintained for the next century. Nor is it certain that rugby league can continue to exist.

Cricket is another global sport that will influence Australia, as well as threaten the global dominance of soccer. Like rugby, cricket was amateur for most of its existence. A game that takes five days to complete just can't be constituted into a domestic competition. Without a domestic competition, players lack bargaining power, there is a lack of fan tribalism from week to week, and professionalism is unlikely.

In 1978, cricket became professional when Kerry Packer launched World Series Cricket based around the one-day game. The latest incarnation of cricket, 20/20, can be completed in the same hours as a football game and therefore it has the potential to be constituted into a domestic competition with a tribal following.

In addition to being constituated into domestic leagues, cricket is also likely to become an Olympic sport. This will ensure that cricket stadiums get built around the world and cricket gets promoted to non-English speaking audiences.

20/20 was created because union and soccer were destroying cricket in England. Ironically, 20/20 now offers the potential to undermine soccer and union around the world. 20/20 cricket is a game suitable to all body shapes, it can be played three or four times a week and most importantly, it is extremely popular in India, Pakistan, Bangladelsh where half the world's population live. In total, cricket is watched by about 3 billion people, which is roughly equal to soccer. Cricket; however, has much more potential to grow.

The main reason to think that union or cricket can surpass soccer is that soccer just isn't very popular at club level. In the last ten years, the average attendance at Brazilian games has been 12,000, with 11,000 in Argentina, and 4,800 in Chile. In Europe, the average attendance is around 20,000. If soccer can't draw decent crowds in countries where it is king, has lengthy traditions, and almost no competition, what will happen when cricket and rugby start challenging it? Admittedly, the soccer World Cup is a huge event (yet still excludes most of Asia) but much of the appeal is based upon the perception the world is united. If that perception wanes, then the appeal wanes with it.

Aside from the English sports, more attempts at global expansion may come from the American sports of basketball, baseball and gridiron. It is unlikely these sports will have much influence in the future for the very reason they have had little influence in the past. Specifically, American sports administrators are more concerned with making money than growing their games. They want the world to watch their domestic competitions. They don't want their best players to be challenged by the world. Without international competition being seen as the pinnacle of the sport, American sports will only ever be big in America. It is no co-incidence that netball, the most international of American sports, has largely been rejected by America. Because America rejected it, the international game was allowed to grow.

Australian football has some loose plans at global expansion. At the beginning of the 19th century, viable competitions operated in South Africa and New Zealand. Both were supplanted by rugby union. Until 20 years ago, it was the national sport of Papua New Guinea. It has since been supplanted by rugby league.

In recent decades, non-professional competitions have been established in the USA, Japan, Denmark and the UK. A competition has been re-established in South Africa and competitions still exist in Papua New Guinea and New Zealand. The main barrier to further expansion is that its rule book is 91-pages long, which makes it very difficult to communicate to people. Furthermore, it needs a lot of diverse skills to bounce, handpass, mark and kick an egg-shaped ball. Not only does this make it difficult for one individual to learn how to play, it makes it difficult for multiple individuals to to learn how to play as a team. Finally, it has the parochial name of Australian football. A neutral name like rules, footy, or reclink would be easier to sell.

Arguably, the football code with the least ambitions for global expansion is also the code with the most potential. The Irish sport of Gaelic football is relatively non-contact so appeals to the soccer mums concerned about violence in rugby. It is superior to soccer; however, because the use of hands makes it more appropriate for a diverse range of body shapes. Finally, it has relatively simple rules that can be communicated quite easily, and its use of a round ball makes it quite easy to acquire the skills needed to play.

There are a few explanations for why Gaelic football never tried to expand in the past. The main reason is that it has been played as an expression of Irish parochialism. The Irish have wanted to be unique, and express community pride. The fact it is only played in Ireland adds to that uniqueness and pride. Ironically, Gaelic football may not even be an Irish invention at all. It was codified almost two decades after the Australian game, and in its early years it bore an uncanny resemblance to the code being played in Australia. Teams were composed of 21 players, an egg-shaped ball was used as were behind posts. These lasted until 1910. Finally, Thomas Croke, one of the founders of the GAA, lived in New Zealand in the early 1870s and had the opportunity to watch Australian rules in that time.

Even though it is possible that Australian football inspired Gaelic football, it is equally possible that one of the folk games of Ireland influenced Australian football. From the moment the first ten rules of Australian football were written down, players began corrupting them. As Henry Harrison, one of the co-fathers of Australian football, wrote in his memoirs:

"As Captain, I once protested that such tactics were against the rules, but the only satisfaction I got was the forceful reply, 'to H- with your rules! We're playing the - Irish rules. "

Aside from being an expression of Irish parochialism, another reason why Gaelic football never tried to expand was that it was amateur. Because it was never driven by commercial motives, it never had clubs wanting to increase their appeal by increasing their exposure in new markets.

Recently, rising prosperity in Ireland has eroded some of the Irish need for a parochial outlet. Raids upon Gaelic football from soccer and Australian football have also led to Gaelic footballers striking for money. It is probably inevitable that Gaelic football will become professional, and with professionalism will come change.  One change may be to pursue international competition with Australia. This may mean Australian football changing some rules, Gaelic football changing some rules, and perhaps a new name being created. If a new hybrid code is created, it will be a code that has a lot of potential to remedy some of the deficiciences seen in both rugby and soccer. Rugby is a little too violent and too physically demanding for some cultures. Soccer has too much acting and crowd violence for others. Gaelic football, or a composite between Gaelic football and the Australian game, would be the perfect compromise.

The main barrier to a compromise is patriotism. just as patriotism can be achieved by playing a generic sport and winning, it can also be achieved by playing a sport that no other country plays. In that regard, a unique sport is like a unique langiage. While speaking English helps access a world community, speaking a unique language helps a culture feel unique in a world community.

Moves towards a generic code would erode some parochialism in both Ireland and Australia. This could be a problem for Gaelic football as parochialism has been one of its main strategies to keep union and rugby weak. Australian football has never really been able to benefit from parochialism. 80 years of convicts in the history, and 1 in 4 people being migrants makes it difficult for people to get emotive about traditions. In the future; however, as the migrant population decreases as a percentage of the total population, it may become more of an asset.

 
(Australia vs Ireland in hybrid rules)

Implications for Australia football codes

 Rugby union and rugby league

The rising importance of club rugby in Europe has serious ramifications for Australia. In the short term, it is likely to be disastrous. Rugby in Australia is geared towards international competition, and European club commitments result in European countries sending second string teams to play the Australians. These contests are largely meaningless and undermine the appeal of the Wallaby brand. It is really only against the All Blacks that Australians can have a serious match. While the matches are indeed emotive, there are only a few of them each year, and they get drowned out by the week-to-week tribalism of Australia's domestic football competitions.

Longer term, the financial power of northern hemisphere club rugby offers union its best hope of defeating rugby league. If northern hemisphere clubs ever get to the stage of offering soccer-style salaries, most league players would seriously consider defecting from an early age. With a growing number of defections, the private companies that now control most rugby league clubs, and the game itself, would seriously consider adopting the rules of rugby union in order to maintain a market presence.

Soccer

Johnny Warren, a famous Australian soccer player, once wrote a book titled "Sheila's, Wogs, and Poofters." The title was in reference to the discrimination that he believed soccer suffered in Australia. The cries of discrimination were probably on the mark. In Australia, soccer has traditionally been seen as a sport for weak men and European immigrants, and this image has made it difficult for the sport to grow in a country where masculinity has a firmer edge.

In their dark years, soccer fans have taken comfort that the follow the global game and one day they will be able to come out of the closet and bask in the sunshine of global popularity. This comfort may be shaken if rugby and cricket start to challenge soccer for global dominance status. If the soccer fan's faith in the future is shaken, the sheila, wogs and poofter insults might become too much for soccer fans to endure. Young Australians may feel the need to prove their masculinity on a rugby, Australian football field, or even cricket field.

The possibility of cricket creating a domestic 20/20 league is also a threat to soccer. At present, soccer seems to have carved out a little niche in summertime. If left unchecked, this niche will eat into the popularity of cricket. A 20/20 league would create an alternative summer league that would potentially eat into soccer.

 

Australian Football

The establishment of a domestic 20/20 cricket league would a god send for Australian football. As both games are played on ovals, a domestic 20/20 league would provide summer time tenants for Australian football grounds. The all-year utilisation would centralise the stadiums in the market's mind, help develop support industries such as bars and restaurants, create more money for stadium improvements, and in some cases, direct revenue to AFL clubs.

The possibility of rugby league and rugby union uniting poses a serious threat to the AFL. Such a union would see the AFL have a competitor with a strong national league, tradition, huge global appeal, and a tough image that seems to appeal to English speakers in a way that soccer does not.